Posted: May 08, 2006 09:43 pm EDT
"Yesterday, Burt said something about us only out to make money, but you know, I say God bless us if we do," stated XPrize founder and SpaceAdventures co-founder Peter Diamandis, 45, with a resigned tone in his voice. Friday morning 9 am, it was Space Adventure's turn to present their case at the International space conference in LA.

On the orbit award dinner the previous night, although both men work towards suborbital space tourism Burt Rutan received standing ovations while Eric Anderson, 36, did not. Why was that? Well, at least the founder of SpaceAdventures wasn't alone. The attendants on this truly stellar conference were clearly picky - through the entire 4-day show we only witnessed standing ovations for Burt Rutan (SpaceShipOne designer), Buzz Aldrin (Apollo 11 Moon landing Astronaut), Neil deGrasse Tyson (Manhattan Hayden Planetarium Director) and Robert Zubrin (Mars Society founder).

Blame the Russians

Yet still, people seemed extra ambivalent to SpaceAdventures.

"How will you handle regulations and safety?" someone asked after the gang had presented their space "vehicle" to be built by the Russians.

"Well, we don't actually build anything," replied Peter Diamandis. "We are not really about that...we...sell tickets."

The suborbital rocket (Explorer/5 seats) is to be built by Russian Myasishchev Design Bureau, and the project is fully-funded by Prodea, a private investment firm founded by the Ansari family (who bankrolled the XPrize founded by Peter). It's unclear how much the rockets will cost, but around $20 million each is a fair guess. Branson's allowance to Rutan is around $250 million to build five SpaceShipTwo vehicles. Eric's should be cheaper - as his tickets are planned to cost half the price.

Eric's spaceports

Eric's biggest tag instead are the commercial spaceports he plans to build in the United Arab Emirates, Asia (Singapore), and North America at a total cost of at least $360 million (USD), to be funded by private investors and governments.

New Mexico State already committed $9 million to the XPrize cup Spaceport (an honor they won in a competition with other states) - divided in $4 million for the launch and landing facilities and $5 million for the planning and operations of the cup.

The questions is why the two foreign spaceports will require as much as $350 million in investment - the Mojave "Spaceport" by comparison consists largely of hangars sitting on barren desert and that seems to work. Another question (posed by Burt Rutan) is why build spaceports at all before there are any rockets to launch.

Dream big

In any case, it will take a big pile of sold tickets to return all those SpaceAdventure investments - closing in on half a billion by now - spaceports and all. Will Eric be able to pull it off?

"Here in US we kind of dream big and hope things turn out that way later" an insider pondered in a later debate about space tickets sold without regulations and merchandise.

No doubt, both Eric and Peter know not only how to think big, but also how to get their message through: On stage with the two men sat Greg Olsen - one of the wealthy clients they'd helped to the International Space Station: Dennis Tito was somewhere in the building as well. That's 40 million right there.

Besides, who knows if Branson have the money needed either? Wasn't he forced to sell Virgin records because he was running out of cash - and wasn't that even before the space race?

Speed bumps

No matter how the dice falls, they all seem to have fun while the game lasts. The eclectic bunch of young and young at heart millionaires making up SpaceAdventures seem to stick together as they move at supersonic speed towards an uncertain future. But there are speed bumps: In May last year, the XPrize Foundation (founded by Peter) elected Takafumi Horie (34) of Livedoor to its Board of Trustees. But then Horie and executives of Livedoor were arrested for cooking books - big time. Yet a speed bump is all it was - one of Horie's former execs is now SpaceAdventures next client for the International Space station.

Riding hard

SpaceAdventures ride hard and sell tickets to likeminded. The suborbital flights aren't their only venture - they already sell ZeroG flights (formerly known as the Vomit-comet), Mig fighter jet rides and other grown up toys - most formerly bankrolled by (God bless them) bigwig communists and built by ex-Soviet workers.

So how lucrative has it been? Eric told Forbes mag that he has sold 100 million in thrill ride tickets (Migs and Iljusins) since 1998. 40 of those were paid by two tourists to the space station (Dennis Tito the first one). But he also said that he made 150 million in revenues only last year and netted 10%.

2 year standstill

The suborbital pie is bigger though, much bigger - estimated at around a billion. Yet this space tourism revenue estimate is resting largely on polls and the fact that there are more than 20 million millionaires in the world.

Before it panned out, Peter had hoped that once the X PRIZE was won, there would be a major flow of cash from the investment community into private space-related ventures and a new marketplace driving the technology. An inspiration was Charles Lindbergh's historic flight from New York to Paris which reportedly spurred airplane rides to take off from 6000 to 180 000 within two years. Two years later however and not another suborbital flight in sight, the question is if the Xprize panned out the way Peter had expected.

Fondling rockets

On this Friday morning, Eric held a notably calmer speech than that of the night before. When he started SpaceAdventures in 1996, he had been just a kid - 26 years old. Now, ten years later, he looked somewhat worn and - dogged. But he got truly excited when he shared with us that the Russians had said they might be able to fly his rockets all the way around the moon. Ticket price - somewhere around $100 million per seat.

And there was more: Peter used to be involved with NASCAR and now he envisions something similar - but for space rockets: Rockets could race by GPS in fast tracks while fans watch on TV. The trouble is that the TV networks won't bite - yet - they need fixed airtimes to be able to sell advertisement - while rocket flight (much like mountaineering) is weather dependent.

There are other problems too - in the first XPrize cup held last year in New Mexico, most rockets went nowhere; one blew up and another hovered for a short while before tipping over. In fact, only XCOR Aerospace did somewhat OK.

In the second edition space air show planned for October 20-22 in Las Cruces, New Mexico, things will improve though and Peter wants people to get up close and personal with the rockets out there. "I want people to see them, feel them, touch them," he said passionately.

Not about space

At the end of their speech, the guys showed a video. The Branson Galactic gang had Philippe Stark to do their design - Space Adventures instead showed Martha Stewart floating around in a ZeroG flight. A giveaway perhaps of rosebud print covers in SpaceAdventures space "vehicles"?

Much like Branson's management team did the day before - the future these guys painted didn't feel much like space at all - it felt like Disneyworld. Forget discovery of other planets, search for extra terrestrial life, termination shocks, cool rocket designs, or even the big question of why. None of this was mentioned - not even once.

To us, it was not inspiring, in fact, it was a bit depressing: Much like guided peak bagging of the Seven Summits and last degree trips to the poles. A fun trip - yes. Stamp in the passport - you got it. But true exploration and adventure? No.

Adventure poetry is found in the margins and this kind of space tourism is simply too far from the edge.

But about fun

Space Adventures and Virgin Galactic are not about space, at least not at this point. But together they might build the world's ultimate futuristic amusement park. Not everyone wants to go for the 14 8000ers either, in fact far more people prefer the Seven Summits. So ExWeb checked with two random members of the conference, both working as space engineers - would they go on a SpaceAdventures suborbital ride? We got a yes from both.

Will the joy rides make people more interested in real space? Not likely. A seven summits experience very rarely spur adventurers to continue to the big summits and full polar expeditions. But fun has a place too in this world. So the answers in our nano survey did sound promising - if not for real space travel, then definitely for Space Adventures ticket sales.

Next - Spacetech: The first satellites, solar space satellites, nano satellites and Google maps.

Eric told Forbes mag that when he started out back in 1996, he was inspired by one of his first investors - Mike McDowell - who already ran Arctic cruises on Russian ice breakers and submarine adventures. The same McDowell and his team took over ANI a few years back, to provide logistics for explorers to Antarctica.

Both Eric and Mike use Russian Iljusins' - Mike to get people to the ice, Eric on zero gravity flights. Among customers are wealthy members from the Explorers Club, and large corporations using the trips as customer and employee promotions.

At least 15 companies are fighting for the space travel market, including Virgin. If you'd like to join - here are a few numbers: Burt Rutan's (reusable) rockets will cost around 25 mills each; the Russians can build a Soyuz for 20, and NASA needs around 500 mills to build a shuttle. A dozen other are racing to beat Rutan's costs. The deadlines for the first crafts range between end 2006 and 2009, depending who you check with. Again, it's a small world. Burt Rutan is building for Branson, Andersons main competitor. Rutan won the Ansari X-Prize, founded by Peter Diamandis - who was one of Andersons early investors - together with Mike McDowell (ANI).

Virgin plan a first flight in 2008 or 2009 a year or two later than originally planned. Passengers will be paying $200,000 each to make the 2 hour flight. The Virgin Galactic business plan calls for 50,000 passengers to be flown in the companys first 10 years of operations - giving 25 percent annual return on invested capital, according to a report at SpaceNews.

Business 2.0 reports that Space Adventures' tickets from the UAE and Singapore to sub-orbit will cost $100,000, half the price of a ride on Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo. Eric is banking on between 5,000 and 10,000 space tourists a year.

The Planetary Society and The National Space Society joined hands for the 25th annual NSS Space Conference. Sponsored by NASA, the event kicked off on Space Day, May 4, and the opening day was proclaimed 'Space Venturing Day' in Los Angeles. And just like on Oscar's night; everyone was there - including team Pythom!









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